WELL ALL-IN-ALL A DISAPPOINTING WEEK ALTHOUGH WE STILL CAME OUT AHEAD AT THE END. SATURDAY 6-5 DAY FOR A +2.5 NET UNIT GAIN AFTER VIG, AND SUNDAY 4-3 IN THE NFL FOR A +.4 NET UNIT PROFIT AFTER VIG. JUST CAN'T SEEM TO CATCH A NEEDED BREAK AS WE HAVE CERTAINLY CHOSEN THE RIGHT SIDES WITH SAN DIEGO OUTGAINING BALTIMORE BY 140 TOTAL YARDS, BUT AGAIN FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK, VERY COSTLY TURNOVERS KILLED OUR CHANCE FOR AN ATS WIN. THE 8* PLAY AS PROJECTED SHOULD HAVE BEEN AN EASY WINNER WITH NORTH TEXAS STICKING RIGHT WITH ARKANSAS, BUT A TOUGH SECOND QUARTER WHERE THEY GAVE UP 24 POINTS FOLLOWED BY A SCORELESS 3RD AND 4TH QUARTERS. BUT WE ARE RIGHT ON THE CUSBIT GUYS, WHEN THE 8* PLAY HITS NEXT TIME...IT WILL BE A HUGE DAY! AS ALWAYS, I PLAY ALL GAMES AT $100/UNIT SO ADJUST THE RATING ACCORDING TO HOW YOU BET. GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY!
THIS WEEK AM GOING TO POST SOME EARLY PLAYS FOR THE PURPOSES OF POSSIBLY MIDDELING THE GAME COME SATURDAY MORNING. I WOULD RECOMMEND BUYING THE LSU LINE NOW...AS THE GAME WILL GO UP PAST A TWO (2) TD NUMBER BEFORE GAMETIME...AND THEN BUYBACK YOUR BET FOR A GREAT MIDDELING OPPORTUNITY. THE LINE IS CURRENTLY -13!
IF YOUR INTERESTED IN GETTING A FULL SEASON OF MY PLAYS AND THE NEWSLETTERS LOOK IN THE BILLBOARD SECTION AS I WILL NOT BE POSTING ALL MY PLAYS THIS YEAR.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
Season Record: College 20-20 50% (-5.20) -$520
Season Record: NFL 10-10 50% (-1.50) -$150
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA FOOTBALL:
(6*) CLIENT PLAY (EMAILED)
(4*) FLORIDA -10 ADDED
(3*) WASHINGTON -12.5
(2*) TROY STATE +12.5
(2*) MARYLAND -34
(2*) CALIFORNIA +13.5
(2*) TULANE +30
(2*) KANSAS +10.5
(1*) ALABAMA +2 ADDED PROBABLE UPGRADE
OPINIONS: COLORADO STATE -6
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA TOTALS FOOTBALL:
(2*) VIRGINIA/WAKE FOREST UNDER 48 ADDED
SUMMARY OF GAMES FOR POTENTIAL BUYBACK:
(2*) NAVY +2 $220-200
(3*) RUTGERS +1.5 $330-300
BUY BACK THE NAVY LINE AS INSTRUCTED. NOW YOU HAVE 3.5 POINTS OF MIDDLE ON THE GAME, RISKING ADDITIONAL ONE UNIT ON RUTGERS AS THE LINE HAS NOW MOVED 4 POINTS FROM THE OPENING NUMBER OF NAVY -3.
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NFL FOOTBALL:
(4*) CLIENT PLAY
(3*) EAGLES +3
(2*) NEW ORLEANS +2
(2*) COWBOYS +3
(1*) BALTIMORE +3
(.5*) EAGLES +160
(.5*) DALLAS +150
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FLORIDA (2 - 2) at KENTUCKY (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 12:30 PM
159 FLORIDA -10
160 KENTUCKY 54.5
Detailed Analysis
"Knock it Down" is the most popular quote of ESPN's Tom Jackson and unfortunately, he is right. The entire complexion of Florida's team changed when Tennessee's "Hail Mary" prayer was answered to end the half with a much needed touchdown. The Gators then went on to lose miserably 24-10. Coach Ron Zook has now put himself on a very "HOT" seat with Gator fans by losing to the first two prongs of Florida's Axis of Evil. Florida now tries to salvage what is left of their season against Kentucky who was a sound 34-17 SU winner against regional rival Indiana. The good news is that Florida has not lost SU against Kentucky since players took the train to games. They are a strong 10-0 SU the last ten years against Kentucky and have covered the spread 7 of those 10 years. Suprisingly, Kentucky has struggled on offense, only posting 197 yards of passing offense and 100 yards on the ground. Kentucky's real woes exist in their run defense. They are giving up 230 yards a game on the ground to very mediocre teams. Don't think that Florida is not aware of that stat since they seem to be committed to the run this year. In Florida's case, this kind of run commitment is like trading in your Ferrari for a mini-van. Sure the mini-van is fun for the whole family, but the Ferrari is how you SCORED in the first place.
The losses to Tennessee and Miami have put Florida in an unfamiliar position. In their 139 games since the end of the 1992 season, Florida has lost back-to-back games only twice without ever losing three straight regular season games. Florida is also 21-4-2 ATS off BB home games, and 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Kentucky. The Bluegrass Cats are just 15-51 ATS in home losses, including just four covers in their last 22 home setbacks. Look for the Gators deep ground assault to established itself early, making it easier for fastdeveloping QB Leak to find open targets. Conversely, fast UF defense will be able to heavily blitz the Wildcats “Hefty Lefty” Lorenzen, who still lacks credible run component. No other choice but to back the bitter Florida team looking to take their anger out on this unfortunate opponent. Statement Game!
Projected Score: Florida 34, Kentucky 17
*PLAY 4* UNITS ON FLORIDA -10
STANFORD (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 3:30 PM
141 STANFORD
142 WASHINGTON -12.5
Detailed Analysis
Washington quarterback Cody Pickett has attempted 38 passes per game this season. He may have to match or exceed that total Saturday when the 18th-ranked Huskies open Pac-10 Conference play against Stanford, which leads the nation in rushing defense. While Stanford (2-0) has faced two teams that also like to throw the ball - San Jose State and Brigham Young - it has allowed only four yards on the ground in 41 attempts. "It's a real pressure-oriented defense and that gives you a lot of things to concern yourself with," Huskies coach Keith Gilbertson said. Washington (2-1) has bounced back from a season-opening loss at Ohio State with a pair of wins against overmatched opponents. Last week, The Huskies overcame a sloppy start to rout Idaho, 45-14, behind an effective ground attack. Washington rushed for 231 yards against the Vandals, its highest total since the 2001 Rose Bowl. Rich Alexis ran for 116 yards and two touchdowns. The Huskies allowed Idaho to close to 17-14 early in the second half, but put away the game by scoring on four straight possessions. Pickett completed 20-of-29 passes for 234 yards. The Cardinal, who have played the fewest games of any Pac-10 team, rallied for an 18-14 victory over BYU last week as quarterback Trent Edwards scored on a 14-yard run with 3:51 remaining. Stanford overcame a sub-par effort by Edwards, who completed 10-of-23 passes for just 25 yards. He also threw two interceptions and was sacked four times. But the Cardinal held BYU to minus-five yards rushing on 25 carries. Stanford did allow the Cougars to pass for 310 yards.
Washington leads the all-time series with Stanford, 38-32-4, but it has been one-sided in recent years, with the Huskies winning 19 of the last 21 meetings. Washington has reeled off 10 wins in a row at home and has not lost in Seattle to the Cardinal since 1975. Suprisingly, the Cardinal are undefeated this year, checking in at a surprising 2-0 after upsetting BYU at Provo last week. But the win streak will end this week in Seattle. First, Stanford beat a horrible San Jose St. club at home. Then came last week's surprise win over the Cougars. But a closer inspection of the stats in that upset show that the Cardinal quarterback, freshman Trent Edwards, was 10 of 23 for 25 yards. That's no typo...25 yards thru the air to go along with 2 interceptions! Fortunately for Stanford, BYU happened to commit 5 critical turnovers on the day. That won't cut it vs. a Washington club that has bounced back nicely from that 28-9 setback to Ohio State three weeks ago. Suddenly the Huskies have found a ground game to compliment QB Cody Pickett, running for 426 yards total the past two games. Washington has won 5 straight in this series, covering four times. And will Again.
Projected Score: Washington 36, Stanford 20
PLAY 3* UNITS ON WASHINGTON -12.5
MARSHALL (2 - 2) at TROY ST (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 7:00 PM
187 MARSHALL -12.5
188 TROY ST
Detailed Analysis
Watch out Big 10, Big East & ACC….. Here comes the MAC! Here comes the MAC! The MAC sent a message to the nation last week with impressive wins by Toledo over Pitt, Northern Illinois over Alabama, Miami Ohio over Colorado State and most impressive, Marshall over Kansas State. Marshall (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) pulled off possibly the biggest win in school history with its amazing victory last week over Kansas State, 27-20, as a 22 ½ point dog. The Thundering Herd accomplished this historic victory behind a ground attack that garnered 210 yards rushing. This feat made all the more amazing when you consider that Kansas State had been allowing a mere 62 yards rushing per game and less than 2 yards per carry. Butchie Wallace led the Herd with 112 yards rushing (6.6 ypc), while Earl Charles chipped in another 83 yards (4.9 ypc). Meanwhile, Troy State (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) christened newly renovated Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium with a shutout victory over visiting Southeast Louisiana, 28-0. However, the term “winning ugly” could definitely be applied to the win as the Trojans turned the ball over five times and were penalized 12 times for 144 yards. The Trojans are now 56-8-1 at home under head coach Larry Blakeney. Again the biggest concern backing marshall in this contest will be any letdown factor that Marshall may bring with them to Troy. The Herd just won possibly their biggest victory in school history over then 6th ranked Kansas State – now the club has to travel and play Independent Troy State.
Underdog players have dreams about this situation, which comes around about as often as a lunar eclipse. It didn’t happen at all in college football last season. Double-digit underdog (Marshall) wins outright on the road, comes back next week as double-digit road favorite in a non-conference road game, which is the least important on the schedule for a team like Marshall because they’re not in a BCS conference, and they already made a recruiting and high-profile statement last week by upsetting Top 10 Kansas State. Marshall looks ahead to a conference home game vs. Kent, and they’re already 0-1 in the MAC so that’s a big game. Troy State toughened up by losing to the same K-State team that Marshall beat with oneimportant exception: Multi-faceted QB Ell Roberson didn’t play for K-State against Marshall. Troy also toughened up by playing against Minnesota’s beefy lines. With Nebraska up next on the road, this is Troy’s big shot. Marshall is a finesse team, not a power team and finesse can be contained with a smart defensive game plan. Just can’t lay 12.5 points on the road with a team that has little incentive to win this one and may still be patting themselves on the back for last week’s victory.
Projected Score: Marshall 14, Troy State 27
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TROY STATE +12.5
WAKE FOREST (3 - 1) at VIRGINIA (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 3:30 PM
107 WAKE FOREST 48
108 VIRGINIA -6
Detailed Analysis
Looks like a battle of strong ground attacks. Wake Forest (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS) has been hot, with a ground game that averages 152 yards. The Demon Deacons have risen to the challenge of a tough schedule, with a 32-28 upset of Boston College (as a 13-point dog), a 38-24 upset of NC State (as an 8-point dog), a tough 16-10 loss to Purdue, followed by their first cupcake, last week’s 34-16 rout of East Carolina. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare – and thank goodness. Despite a 2-1 record (2-1 ATS), it’s been a trying time for the Cavaliers because of the loss of standout QB Matt Schaub (separated right shoulder). The offense is still scoring points (31 ppg this year), but that’s not a good indicator of where they are. Virginia is averaging just 136 yards passing per game, 100 yards less per game than last season. The injury to Schaub has forced them to go to the ground, and they are averaging 179 yards rushing pg. The QB play has been below-average behind sophomore Marques Hagans and freshman Anthony Martinez.
Undoubtably, the teams know each other well, the coaches have had a chance to see each other's stuff, and Virginia has had an extra week to prepare their defense to defend against all the Wake offensive misdirection. Plus, Virginia QB Matt Schaub hasn't played in three weeks. He'll be a little rusty if he plays at all. And perhaps the best part of my selection may be that the weather forcast calls for 23-30 MPH winds. in VA on Saturday during the game. It's hard to kick field goals into that and it's hard to pass into it. TAKE THE UNDER.
Projected Score: Wake Forest 16, Virginia 19
PLAY 2* UNITS ON VIRGINIA/WAKE FOREST UNDER 48
MARYLAND (2 - 2) at E MICHIGAN (1 - 3)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 6:00 PM
151 MARYLAND -34
152 E MICHIGAN
Detailed Analysis
Total mismatch here! The Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-1 ATS) managed to win the first game of the season against East Tennessee State but lost their next three to Western Illinois, Akron and Navy. Things won't get easier here against the Terrapins (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), who lost their first two games of the season but have been on fire in the last two, outscoring their opponents 95-7. In their last game, the Eagles didn't stop the run, losing to Navy 7-39, allowing the Midshipmen to run for 372 total yds, while rushing for just 32 total yds. The Eagles faced off with the Terrapins in Maryland last year and were clobbered 45-3 as 35-point underdogs. Ralph Freidgen has been splendid as a chalk aritst, covering 15 of his 18 tries as a favorite, while Eastern Michigan’s only seven games against BCS schools since the Emus hit the Big Board in ’99 were defeats of 39, 34, 45, 34, 47, 49, and 42. Do the math!
Projected Score: Maryland 48, E Michigan 3
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MARYLAND -34
USC (3 - 0) at CALIFORNIA (2 - 3)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 5:00 PM
147 USC -13.5
148 CALIFORNIA
Detailed Analysis
If it is possible to be a better team a year after losing a Heisman Trophy winner, Southern California may be the perfect example. The third-ranked Trojans (3-0) will look to continue their early season excellence when they come off a bye to open Pac-10 play against California (2-3) on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll came into this season wondering how he would replace quarterback Carson Palmer, last year's Heisman winner who guided the Trojans to an 11-2 record and a win over Iowa in the Orange Bowl. So far, Carroll hasn't had to worry about the most important position on the field, because he's getting big contributions from just about everywhere else. Whether it was the defense's stellar effort in a 23-0 win at then-No. 6 Auburn to open the season, or the offense combining for 96 points in wins over BYU and Hawaii, the Trojans look like a team on a mission to not only win the Pac-10 but also contend for a national championship. It also doesn't hurt that that Palmer's replacement, Matt Leinart, a 6-foot-5, 220-pounder, has stepped in and been efficient throwing 51-for-85 for 647 yards and six touchdowns with three interceptions.
The road continues against Cal, a team in transition following the departure of quarterback Kyle Boller. "We're pumped up the Pac-10 is finally here and we can play games that give us a chance to win a championship," Carroll said. "It starts off with Cal, a young team that's transitioned from a good season last year and has started to play good football. They caused problems for teams last year and us in particular. They had a big-time win at Illinois that I'm sure was a boost." Carroll said he expects Tedford to mix things up on offense, which could make Cal unpredictable. "Jeff Tedford has done a great job with the style of the offense and I think he's one of the better coaches we will face all year," Carroll said. "He creates challenges for us on defense. It's a very wide-open style. They do a lot of things and make it very difficult for us."
Cal coach Jeff Tedford knows what his team is up against. "(The Trojans) are very talented. They are very well coached," Tedford said. "They have great schemes. They are fast, athletic, great tacklers on defense. They have great receivers and a great offensive line. They are a very well-balanced group."
Cal comes into this matchup with momentum after winning 31-24 over Illinois at Champaign last week. A 68-yard punt return by Vincent Strang late in the first half put Cal up by two touchdowns, and the Golden Bears withstood a furious Illinois rally in the final five minutes. Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers, making his first start of the season, completed 20 of 37 passes for 263 yards and one touchdown, a 14-yarder to Geoff McArthur. Rodgers and McArthur hooked up six times for 90 yards in the second quarter. Still, Tedford says his players will have to be even better to stand a chance against USC. "We have to make the plays when they come our way," Tedford said. "We have to take advantage of all our opportunities. It comes down to execution." Cal has covered 6 of past 8 vs. hated Pac-10 rival USC, including narrow 30-28 loss at L.A. Coliseum LY
While the Trojans enjoyed a week off, the Golden Bears were shocking Illinois in Champaign, 31-24. In a scheduling quirk, this will be California's sixth game while USC will be playing just their fourth. It's too early in the year for fatigue to be a factor so advantage Cal who has performed well vs. some very good competition. The offense has been particularly impressive under the guidance of quarterback Aaron Rogers. The Juco transfer, who had an incredible 28 to 4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions last year, is doing a pretty good job of making Bear fans forget about the departed Kyle Boller. The Trojans are a legitimate Top 10 club but are laying big points to a team that has yet to lose a game by more than 11 points under the guidance of head coach Jeff Tedford is a dicey proposition! Take the points and pray!
Projected Score: USC 30, California 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON CALIFORNIA +13.5
TULANE (3 - 1) at TEXAS (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 7:00 PM
169 TULANE
170 TEXAS -30
Detailed Analysis
No. 13 Texas will be facing one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country Saturday when it hosts Tulane in its final non-conference contest. Tulane's J.P. Losman has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of the Green Wave's first four games and leads the nation in touchdowns (15) and passing yards (1,355). Losman has completed 64 percent of his passes (109-of-171) and ranks second in the nation in total offense. He passed for 350 yards and five touchdowns against Army. "They have a talented quarterback, a lot of good receivers and the offensive line is returning eight or nine starters," Texas defensive tackle Kalen Thornton said. "They are a very talented team, and it's going to be tough to get out there and get after them."
Texas leads the all-time series with Tulane, 16-1-1, and has not allowed a point against the Green Wave (3-1) since 1962. Since then, the Longhorns have won four games by a combined score of 132-0, including a 49-0 victory last season. But this year's Tulane team is averaging 35.8 points per game. After their first three contests were decided by three points, the Green Wave defeated Army, 50-33, last week, forcing eight turnovers. "We beat them pretty well last year, but they were 0-3," Texas quarterback Chance Mock said. "By most pro prospects, they have the highest rated quarterback in the country, and that will be a challenge for our defense." Last week, Texas (2-1) rebounded from a home loss to Arkansas by routing winless Rice, 48-7. The Longhorns rushed for just 62 yards against Arkansas, but Benson ran for 85 in the first half alone against Rice. The Longhorns exploited Rice's defense on Saturday night, as RB Cedric Benson scored three touchdowns and backup RB Selvin Young had two more in a 41-point first half on their way to an easy 48-7 victory over the Owls. Against the Owls, they managed 323 total net rushing yards, a marked improvement!
Make no mistake, the Green Wave can score: In four games this season, Tulane has outscored its opponents 143-123 and won its last three contests after losing to TCU in the season opener. Although the Green Wave have some momentum, it could be hard to beat the Longhorns on their home turf. Texas defeated the Green Wave in Tulane last season 49-0 as 32-point favorites and this one looks to be a surefire shoot-out so take the hot QB with 30 points.
Projected Score: Texas 42, Tulane 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TULANE +30
MISSOURI (4 - 0) at KANSAS (3 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 12:35 PM
167 MISSOURI -10.5
168 KANSAS
Detailed Analysis
No. 23 Missouri heads into the start of conference play undefeated - but just barely. After escaping with an overtime win against Middle Tennessee, the 23rd-ranked Tigers seek their first 5-0 start in more than two decades Saturday when they visit Kansas in the Big 12 Conference opener for both teams. Middle Tennessee came into the game as a three-touchdown underdog, but Missouri needed Brad Smith's four-yard touchdown run and a 36-yard extra point by Mike Matheny to hold off the winless Blue Raiders, 41-40, in triple overtime. Matheny was forced to kick a long extra point because of a penalty for excessive celebration following Smith's touchdown. Smith passed for three touchdowns and accounted for 238 yards of total offense for Missouri, which has not been 5-0 since 1981, when the Tigers finished 8-4.
Kansas (3-1) is off to its best start since 1987, but faces a stiffer test this week after routing Division I-AA Jacksonville State, 41-6. Bill Whittemore, who threw for 319 yards, passed for two touchdowns and ran for two more in the Jayhawks' 28-point first quarter, Kansas' highest-scoring period since 1964. Whittemore became the first player in school history to be responsible for four touchdowns in one period. The Jayhawks appear to be making progress under second-year coach Mark Mangino, having already surpassed last season's win total (2-10). But they have dropped 15 straight conference games.
Missouri and Kansas are meeting for the 112th time in the nation's second-oldest rivalry. The Tigers are looking for their first three-game winning streak in the series since 1986-88. Missouri posted a 36-12 victory last season as Smith passed for two touchdowns and scored on a 75-yard run.
The Jayhawks (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been on a roll lately, losing their first game of the season to Northwestern, but coming back strong with three consecutive victories over UNLV, Wyoming and Jacksonville State. In those three victories, Kansas has scored 46, 42 and 41 points, respectively. QB Bill Whittemore passed for 319 yards with two TDs and rushed for two more TDs against Jacksonville State. The Tigers have looked tough to beat and should get another victory here in what could turn out to be a high-scoring contest. Again, backing the hot QB with the points.
Projected Score: Missouri 40, Kansas 36
PLAY 2* UNITS ON KANSAS +10.5
ARKANSAS (3 - 0) at ALABAMA (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 3:30 PM
137 ARKANSAS -2
138 ALABAMA 44
Detailed Analysis
We told you so! Alabama just does not cover the big number at home, now 11-23 ATS as a large favorite (10 points or more). Last week, the Tide fell victim to the Big MAC attack losing SU to a very good Northern Illinois team, 19-16, as a 12 point favorite. This week gets no easier even though this will be the Tide's fifth home game in a row to start the year. What are they going to do when they have to travel to the rest of the SEC? A great question for a later week. Arkansas once again ate piggishly at the Texas trough, defeating North Texas State 31-7 SU.
This game could be the biggest trap of the year. How quick people forget that Alabama should have beat Oklahoma as they were able to match them play for play! The underdog in this series has been Dominate ATS (6-2, 75%) The past two years Alabama has starved the Hogs 30-12 SU at Arkansas last year and 31-10 SU the year before in Tuscaloosa.
Projected Score: Arkansas 17, Alabama 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ALABAMA +2
UTAH (2 - 1) at COLORADO ST (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 6:30 PM
133 UTAH 52
134 COLORADO ST -6
The Rams defense has been a sieve since a 36-33 home loss to UNLV to end last season. Take out a 31-7 win over outmanned Weber State, and the Rams defense has allowed an average of 35 points per game in their last 4 regular season tilts. This season alone, Colorado, Cal, and Miami-Ohio have completed 73 of 108 passes, (a 68% completion rate), for 994 yards, with 9 TD's and just 2 INT's! But this week, they open the conference season with upstart Utah coming to town. Fresh meat! A new QB on the road. Defensive guru Sonny Lubick of Colorado State will know how to handle that. Alex Smith of Utah basically handed off all night when he made his first career start on his home field on a Thursday night, on TV. He was aided by a 14-0 lead courtesy of bad ball-handling by Cal. CSU QB Bradlee van Pelt is a gamer and CSU has been pointing to a defense of their conference title. Utah's starting tight end is out, so Smith has one less possession receiver and he isn't likely to be throwing deep much.
Projected Score: Colorado St 27, Utah 14
*OPINION SELECTION ON COLORADO STATE -6
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PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 1:00 PM
199 PHILADELPHIA 41
200 BUFFALO -3.5
Detailed Analysis
Will the real Philadelphia Eagles please stand up? They haven't yet, although in fairness, they've lost to the last two Super Bowl champs (Bucs, Patriots). On the other hand, both those games were at home and the Eagles (0-2 SU/ATS) are averaging 5 points per game! The Eagles entered this season with Super Bowl aspirations. After losing in the NFC championship game each of the last two seasons, the Eagles entered this year with one goal - Super Bowl or bust. So far, it's been a major bust as the Eagles have been manhandled in losing their two home games by a combined 48-10 against the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs and Pats.
The Eagles enter this contest off their bye and are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since dropping four in a row in 1999 - Andy Reid's first season as coach. Reid, who has built a reputation as an offensive coach, has watched his offense look downright offensive through two games. The Eagles have committed seven turnovers, yielded 10 sacks and Reid has abandoned the running game. McNabb has completed just 45 percent (37-of-82) of his passes for 334 yards and three interceptions. Buckhalter, who began the season as the Eagles' starting running back, has just one carry in two games. "We lost two games and people think it's the end of the world," Buckhalter said. "We're going to go out there and play some emotional football and start a winning streak." The Eagles' defense also has been decimated by injuries. They have lost three defensive linemen to season-ending injuries and cornerback B Taylor and fellow Pro Bowl free safety B Dawkins likely will miss their second straight game with foot injuries.
Many, think that being shorthanded on defense could be trouble against the Bills, who feature quarterback Bledsoe and star receiver E Moulds. Running back T Henry could miss the contest with injured ribs. Bledsoe and the rest of the Bills' offense will be looking to get back on track after getting shut down in last Sunday's 17-7 loss at Miami. The Bills managed just 118 total yards and eight first downs in losing for the first time in three games. Against the Dolphins, Bledsoe completed 10-of-25 passes for 98 yards, with two interceptions. Moulds was held to two receptions for 30 yards.
Buffalo leads the series, 5-4. The Bills posted a 26-0 victory over the Eagles in the last meeting between the teams here in 1999. Perhaps getting away from the Philly boo-birds will help. Injuries have hit Philly hard, but with two weeks to prepare for this matchup look for Andy Reid to steady the ship and for innovative defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson to have some tricks up his sleeve, though missing safety Brian Dawkins and possibly cornerback Bobby Taylor. This is a great spot for the Eagles. Coming off a bye and back-toback home losses, the Eagles have to be extremely hungry for a win. Add Buffalo’s terrible 2-20 ATS record (11 ATS losses in a row) in the game following a Miami game and Philly’s sterling 13-5 ATS mark as road dogs and the game sets up perfectly. Remember, the Green Birds are 7-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss with Reid.
Projected Score: BUF Bills 17, PHI Eagles 24
PLAY 3* UNITS ON THE EAGLES +3.5
PLAY EAGLES MONEYLINE +160
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 8:30 PM
219 INDIANAPOLIS -2
220 NEW ORLEANS 42.5
Detailed Analysis
Perhaps the most disappointing team thusfar in the NFl would have to be the Saints. The Saints (1-2 SU/ATS) are coming off a 27-12 loss to the Titans in which QB Aaron Brooks had trouble igniting the Saints. New Orleans, which had the NFC's highest-scoring offense last year, could only outscore Tennessee's special teams which had a safety through the first three quarters. WR Joe Horn had 17 catches in the first two games combined but just one for 5 yards against Tennessee. "They took away our primary threat, which is Deuce running the football," Brooks said. "Deuce had no daylight, no daylight at all." however, expect Deuce to carry the ball alot on this matchup (around 30 carries) which will keep the potentially explosive Colts offense off the field.
Usually, non-conference road games are the least important on any team’s schedule, unless it’s late in the season and playoff berths are on the line. However, this particular non-conference road game for the Colts precedes ANOTHER non-conference road game at Tampa Bay. Conventional wisdom would say “prepare here, lest you take a passing team into the teeth of a great pass defense at Tampa Bay and get stomped.” But Tony Dungy once coached the Bucs. Tampa Bay won a Super Bowl immediately after they let Dungy go. Who would Tony Dungy want to beat more than anyone else? The Bucs, no doubt. With a 3-0 record in a weak division, this game, as mentioned, is not very important in the Colts’ big picture. The Colts have been tough in tough places like at Philly and Denver last year. But Saints’ team speed on offense could turn small routes into big gains, and the New Orleans return and coverage teams are very underrated and can turn the tide of a game in a hurry.
Interestingly, there are two games that fall into PLAY AGAINST trend which has only happened 17 times in the last 17 years and there are two games on the board that fit into this trend this weekend. PLAY AGAINST any Game Four NFL road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first three games. ATS W-L RECORD SINCE 1986: 15-2 (88%). I will take the Saints and there speed as they look to get back on track this Sunday night.
Projected Score: IND Colts 17, NO Saints 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW ORLEANS +2
DALLAS (1 - 1) at NY JETS (0 - 3)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 4:15 PM
215 DALLAS 37
216 NY JETS -3
Detailed Analysis
Monday morning headline in NY city: Parcell's "King of New York." As it stands now, Parcells has more wins at the Meadowlands this season than the Jets, the team he coached from 1997-99. The Jets will have to beat their former boss on Sunday when they host Parcells and the Cowboys to avoid hitting the bye week with an 0-4 record. But the Parcells Reunion Tour started with a 35-32 overtime win here over the Giants on September 15. Parcells ends the Tour with a game at New England on November 16. "A lot's going to be made of it because it's Parcells coming back to New York again for the second time in three weeks," said Jets four-time Pro Bowl center Mawae, who was signed by Parcells in February 1998.
Parcells led the Jets to the AFC championship game in 1998 and went 29-19 in his three years with the team. But he "retired" from coaching after the 1999 season and remained as general manager for one more year before leaving the organization. Although Parcells said he would never coach again, many of the Jets knew he would return to the field. "He had the itch, you could see it," said Jets cornerback R Mickens. "This is the NFL and change is imminent." After three straight 5-11 finishes, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was seeking dramatic change when he hired Parcells, who coached the Giants to two Super Bowl titles and New England to a Super Bowl appearance. The Cowboys lost at home to Atlanta, 27-13 in Parcells' debut but followed that up with the overtime win at Giants Stadium. Q Carter threw for a career-high 321 yards and PK Cundiff tied an NFL record with seven field goals. Maligned after missing an extra-point and a short field goal attempt in the loss to Atlanta, Cundiff kicked a career-high 52-yard field goal on the final play of regulation to tie the game and drilled the winning 25-yarder in overtime.
The Jets have scored a total of 39 points in three games, and have fared poorly in the red zone, managing one touchdown in six possessions inside the opponents' 20. They were fourth in the NFL in red zone efficiency last season. New York has also failed to establish a balanced offense, calling 115 passes and only 50 rushes in three games. Testaverde threw for 264 yards and a touchdown in last week's 23-16 loss at New England. Testaverde, who turns 40 in November, is eighth all-time with 40,300 yards. Hall of Famer Joe Montana is seventh all-time with 40,551 yards.
How important is coaching in football? You'll see it on display here. Dallas (1-1 SU/ATS) has had two weeks to prepare and played their last game in these neck of the woods, a wild 35-32 OT win at the Giants. The young players are responding under Bill Parcells, and this team is averaging 24 points and 275 yards passing per game. The 'D' has been able to stop the run, but not the pass, so perhaps the Jets can score with their air game here. On the other hand, the Jets (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) are a mess with a pitiful (and conservative) offense under aging Vinny Testaverde that has scored 13, 10 and 16 points in three games (all losses). Listening to coach Edwards he doesn't sound confident of his team. Note that he's not playing mind games with Parcell's by talking up the Boyz', but rather diminishing his teams performance and ability. Jets again without key contributors on defense and the linebackers are very slow. Meanwhile Parcells has had the bye to come down off the mountain with their upset win on this field two weeks ago. Dallas has solid secondary that matches up very well to Jets receivers. All sign point to an underdog straight up win in this affair. Also lean on the UNDER in this one with the lifeless JETS...bet the tick...tick...tick.
Projected Score: DAL Cowboys 17, NY Jets 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON DALLAS +3
PLAY .5 UNITS ON DALLAS +150
KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 4:05 PM
197 KANSAS CITY -3
198 BALTIMORE 44
Detailed Analysis
Interesting battle...a great defense against a great offense. The Ravens are off to a surprising 2-1 SU/ATS start, but note that they are one-dimensional on offense: 194 yards rushing per game, 96.7 yds passing as they work in rookie QB Kyle Boller. The Ravens had 249 yards last week (just 97 yds passing) in a 24-10 win at San Diego and allowed 132 yards rushing, 4.4 yards per rush. This run defense is not as strong as in recent years, and they will be tested here against a red-hot KC team. Kansas City (3-0 SU/ATS) is rolling under coach Dick Vermeil, arguably the best coach in the NFL. They are outscoring teams by a 36-16 average.
The running back matchup of Jamal Lewis vs. Priest Holmes figures to be so good the game has been switched to a late afternoon kickoff to accommodate more viewers. Holmes,though,almost didn’t play last week. He was so banged up with rib and calf injuries the team listed him as questionable. The Ravens have much the superior defense here, with MLB Ray Lewis back to his dominant Super Bowl form of 2000 flying all over the field, and rookie Terrell Suggs providing an additional pass rushing spark. The Ravens are quite familiar with Holmes and his cutback abilities.Holmes played four seasons with Baltimore before signing with the Chiefs as a free agent. The Chiefs have struggled on the road, going 2-6 away from Arrowhead Stadium last year. This also is their secondstraight away game. Kansas City’s passing attack hasn’t been anything special. Trent Green has thrown for three touchdowns, no wide receiver has stepped up so far and star TE Tony Gonzalez has been close to a non-factor being slowed by a lingering ankle injury. For those who appreciate trends and angles consider the Ravens are 9-0 ATS the last nine years in their fourth game of the season. Baltimore also has covered its last six against AFC West opponents.
Interestingly, there are two games that fall into PLAY AGAINST trend which has only happened 17 times in the last 17 years and there are two games on the board that fit into this trend this weekend. PLAY AGAINST any Game Four NFL road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first three games. ATS W-L RECORD SINCE 1986: 15-2 (88%).
Projected Score: KC Chiefs 21, BAL Ravens 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BALTIMORE +3
[This message was edited by Sports Guru on September 27, 2003 at 07:54 AM.]
THIS WEEK AM GOING TO POST SOME EARLY PLAYS FOR THE PURPOSES OF POSSIBLY MIDDELING THE GAME COME SATURDAY MORNING. I WOULD RECOMMEND BUYING THE LSU LINE NOW...AS THE GAME WILL GO UP PAST A TWO (2) TD NUMBER BEFORE GAMETIME...AND THEN BUYBACK YOUR BET FOR A GREAT MIDDELING OPPORTUNITY. THE LINE IS CURRENTLY -13!
IF YOUR INTERESTED IN GETTING A FULL SEASON OF MY PLAYS AND THE NEWSLETTERS LOOK IN THE BILLBOARD SECTION AS I WILL NOT BE POSTING ALL MY PLAYS THIS YEAR.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
Season Record: College 20-20 50% (-5.20) -$520
Season Record: NFL 10-10 50% (-1.50) -$150
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA FOOTBALL:
(6*) CLIENT PLAY (EMAILED)
(4*) FLORIDA -10 ADDED
(3*) WASHINGTON -12.5
(2*) TROY STATE +12.5
(2*) MARYLAND -34
(2*) CALIFORNIA +13.5
(2*) TULANE +30
(2*) KANSAS +10.5
(1*) ALABAMA +2 ADDED PROBABLE UPGRADE
OPINIONS: COLORADO STATE -6
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA TOTALS FOOTBALL:
(2*) VIRGINIA/WAKE FOREST UNDER 48 ADDED
SUMMARY OF GAMES FOR POTENTIAL BUYBACK:
(2*) NAVY +2 $220-200
(3*) RUTGERS +1.5 $330-300
BUY BACK THE NAVY LINE AS INSTRUCTED. NOW YOU HAVE 3.5 POINTS OF MIDDLE ON THE GAME, RISKING ADDITIONAL ONE UNIT ON RUTGERS AS THE LINE HAS NOW MOVED 4 POINTS FROM THE OPENING NUMBER OF NAVY -3.
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NFL FOOTBALL:
(4*) CLIENT PLAY
(3*) EAGLES +3
(2*) NEW ORLEANS +2
(2*) COWBOYS +3
(1*) BALTIMORE +3
(.5*) EAGLES +160
(.5*) DALLAS +150
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FLORIDA (2 - 2) at KENTUCKY (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 12:30 PM
159 FLORIDA -10
160 KENTUCKY 54.5
Detailed Analysis
"Knock it Down" is the most popular quote of ESPN's Tom Jackson and unfortunately, he is right. The entire complexion of Florida's team changed when Tennessee's "Hail Mary" prayer was answered to end the half with a much needed touchdown. The Gators then went on to lose miserably 24-10. Coach Ron Zook has now put himself on a very "HOT" seat with Gator fans by losing to the first two prongs of Florida's Axis of Evil. Florida now tries to salvage what is left of their season against Kentucky who was a sound 34-17 SU winner against regional rival Indiana. The good news is that Florida has not lost SU against Kentucky since players took the train to games. They are a strong 10-0 SU the last ten years against Kentucky and have covered the spread 7 of those 10 years. Suprisingly, Kentucky has struggled on offense, only posting 197 yards of passing offense and 100 yards on the ground. Kentucky's real woes exist in their run defense. They are giving up 230 yards a game on the ground to very mediocre teams. Don't think that Florida is not aware of that stat since they seem to be committed to the run this year. In Florida's case, this kind of run commitment is like trading in your Ferrari for a mini-van. Sure the mini-van is fun for the whole family, but the Ferrari is how you SCORED in the first place.
The losses to Tennessee and Miami have put Florida in an unfamiliar position. In their 139 games since the end of the 1992 season, Florida has lost back-to-back games only twice without ever losing three straight regular season games. Florida is also 21-4-2 ATS off BB home games, and 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Kentucky. The Bluegrass Cats are just 15-51 ATS in home losses, including just four covers in their last 22 home setbacks. Look for the Gators deep ground assault to established itself early, making it easier for fastdeveloping QB Leak to find open targets. Conversely, fast UF defense will be able to heavily blitz the Wildcats “Hefty Lefty” Lorenzen, who still lacks credible run component. No other choice but to back the bitter Florida team looking to take their anger out on this unfortunate opponent. Statement Game!
Projected Score: Florida 34, Kentucky 17
*PLAY 4* UNITS ON FLORIDA -10
STANFORD (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 3:30 PM
141 STANFORD
142 WASHINGTON -12.5
Detailed Analysis
Washington quarterback Cody Pickett has attempted 38 passes per game this season. He may have to match or exceed that total Saturday when the 18th-ranked Huskies open Pac-10 Conference play against Stanford, which leads the nation in rushing defense. While Stanford (2-0) has faced two teams that also like to throw the ball - San Jose State and Brigham Young - it has allowed only four yards on the ground in 41 attempts. "It's a real pressure-oriented defense and that gives you a lot of things to concern yourself with," Huskies coach Keith Gilbertson said. Washington (2-1) has bounced back from a season-opening loss at Ohio State with a pair of wins against overmatched opponents. Last week, The Huskies overcame a sloppy start to rout Idaho, 45-14, behind an effective ground attack. Washington rushed for 231 yards against the Vandals, its highest total since the 2001 Rose Bowl. Rich Alexis ran for 116 yards and two touchdowns. The Huskies allowed Idaho to close to 17-14 early in the second half, but put away the game by scoring on four straight possessions. Pickett completed 20-of-29 passes for 234 yards. The Cardinal, who have played the fewest games of any Pac-10 team, rallied for an 18-14 victory over BYU last week as quarterback Trent Edwards scored on a 14-yard run with 3:51 remaining. Stanford overcame a sub-par effort by Edwards, who completed 10-of-23 passes for just 25 yards. He also threw two interceptions and was sacked four times. But the Cardinal held BYU to minus-five yards rushing on 25 carries. Stanford did allow the Cougars to pass for 310 yards.
Washington leads the all-time series with Stanford, 38-32-4, but it has been one-sided in recent years, with the Huskies winning 19 of the last 21 meetings. Washington has reeled off 10 wins in a row at home and has not lost in Seattle to the Cardinal since 1975. Suprisingly, the Cardinal are undefeated this year, checking in at a surprising 2-0 after upsetting BYU at Provo last week. But the win streak will end this week in Seattle. First, Stanford beat a horrible San Jose St. club at home. Then came last week's surprise win over the Cougars. But a closer inspection of the stats in that upset show that the Cardinal quarterback, freshman Trent Edwards, was 10 of 23 for 25 yards. That's no typo...25 yards thru the air to go along with 2 interceptions! Fortunately for Stanford, BYU happened to commit 5 critical turnovers on the day. That won't cut it vs. a Washington club that has bounced back nicely from that 28-9 setback to Ohio State three weeks ago. Suddenly the Huskies have found a ground game to compliment QB Cody Pickett, running for 426 yards total the past two games. Washington has won 5 straight in this series, covering four times. And will Again.
Projected Score: Washington 36, Stanford 20
PLAY 3* UNITS ON WASHINGTON -12.5
MARSHALL (2 - 2) at TROY ST (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 7:00 PM
187 MARSHALL -12.5
188 TROY ST
Detailed Analysis
Watch out Big 10, Big East & ACC….. Here comes the MAC! Here comes the MAC! The MAC sent a message to the nation last week with impressive wins by Toledo over Pitt, Northern Illinois over Alabama, Miami Ohio over Colorado State and most impressive, Marshall over Kansas State. Marshall (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) pulled off possibly the biggest win in school history with its amazing victory last week over Kansas State, 27-20, as a 22 ½ point dog. The Thundering Herd accomplished this historic victory behind a ground attack that garnered 210 yards rushing. This feat made all the more amazing when you consider that Kansas State had been allowing a mere 62 yards rushing per game and less than 2 yards per carry. Butchie Wallace led the Herd with 112 yards rushing (6.6 ypc), while Earl Charles chipped in another 83 yards (4.9 ypc). Meanwhile, Troy State (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) christened newly renovated Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium with a shutout victory over visiting Southeast Louisiana, 28-0. However, the term “winning ugly” could definitely be applied to the win as the Trojans turned the ball over five times and were penalized 12 times for 144 yards. The Trojans are now 56-8-1 at home under head coach Larry Blakeney. Again the biggest concern backing marshall in this contest will be any letdown factor that Marshall may bring with them to Troy. The Herd just won possibly their biggest victory in school history over then 6th ranked Kansas State – now the club has to travel and play Independent Troy State.
Underdog players have dreams about this situation, which comes around about as often as a lunar eclipse. It didn’t happen at all in college football last season. Double-digit underdog (Marshall) wins outright on the road, comes back next week as double-digit road favorite in a non-conference road game, which is the least important on the schedule for a team like Marshall because they’re not in a BCS conference, and they already made a recruiting and high-profile statement last week by upsetting Top 10 Kansas State. Marshall looks ahead to a conference home game vs. Kent, and they’re already 0-1 in the MAC so that’s a big game. Troy State toughened up by losing to the same K-State team that Marshall beat with oneimportant exception: Multi-faceted QB Ell Roberson didn’t play for K-State against Marshall. Troy also toughened up by playing against Minnesota’s beefy lines. With Nebraska up next on the road, this is Troy’s big shot. Marshall is a finesse team, not a power team and finesse can be contained with a smart defensive game plan. Just can’t lay 12.5 points on the road with a team that has little incentive to win this one and may still be patting themselves on the back for last week’s victory.
Projected Score: Marshall 14, Troy State 27
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TROY STATE +12.5
WAKE FOREST (3 - 1) at VIRGINIA (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 3:30 PM
107 WAKE FOREST 48
108 VIRGINIA -6
Detailed Analysis
Looks like a battle of strong ground attacks. Wake Forest (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS) has been hot, with a ground game that averages 152 yards. The Demon Deacons have risen to the challenge of a tough schedule, with a 32-28 upset of Boston College (as a 13-point dog), a 38-24 upset of NC State (as an 8-point dog), a tough 16-10 loss to Purdue, followed by their first cupcake, last week’s 34-16 rout of East Carolina. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare – and thank goodness. Despite a 2-1 record (2-1 ATS), it’s been a trying time for the Cavaliers because of the loss of standout QB Matt Schaub (separated right shoulder). The offense is still scoring points (31 ppg this year), but that’s not a good indicator of where they are. Virginia is averaging just 136 yards passing per game, 100 yards less per game than last season. The injury to Schaub has forced them to go to the ground, and they are averaging 179 yards rushing pg. The QB play has been below-average behind sophomore Marques Hagans and freshman Anthony Martinez.
Undoubtably, the teams know each other well, the coaches have had a chance to see each other's stuff, and Virginia has had an extra week to prepare their defense to defend against all the Wake offensive misdirection. Plus, Virginia QB Matt Schaub hasn't played in three weeks. He'll be a little rusty if he plays at all. And perhaps the best part of my selection may be that the weather forcast calls for 23-30 MPH winds. in VA on Saturday during the game. It's hard to kick field goals into that and it's hard to pass into it. TAKE THE UNDER.
Projected Score: Wake Forest 16, Virginia 19
PLAY 2* UNITS ON VIRGINIA/WAKE FOREST UNDER 48
MARYLAND (2 - 2) at E MICHIGAN (1 - 3)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 6:00 PM
151 MARYLAND -34
152 E MICHIGAN
Detailed Analysis
Total mismatch here! The Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-1 ATS) managed to win the first game of the season against East Tennessee State but lost their next three to Western Illinois, Akron and Navy. Things won't get easier here against the Terrapins (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), who lost their first two games of the season but have been on fire in the last two, outscoring their opponents 95-7. In their last game, the Eagles didn't stop the run, losing to Navy 7-39, allowing the Midshipmen to run for 372 total yds, while rushing for just 32 total yds. The Eagles faced off with the Terrapins in Maryland last year and were clobbered 45-3 as 35-point underdogs. Ralph Freidgen has been splendid as a chalk aritst, covering 15 of his 18 tries as a favorite, while Eastern Michigan’s only seven games against BCS schools since the Emus hit the Big Board in ’99 were defeats of 39, 34, 45, 34, 47, 49, and 42. Do the math!
Projected Score: Maryland 48, E Michigan 3
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MARYLAND -34
USC (3 - 0) at CALIFORNIA (2 - 3)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 5:00 PM
147 USC -13.5
148 CALIFORNIA
Detailed Analysis
If it is possible to be a better team a year after losing a Heisman Trophy winner, Southern California may be the perfect example. The third-ranked Trojans (3-0) will look to continue their early season excellence when they come off a bye to open Pac-10 play against California (2-3) on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll came into this season wondering how he would replace quarterback Carson Palmer, last year's Heisman winner who guided the Trojans to an 11-2 record and a win over Iowa in the Orange Bowl. So far, Carroll hasn't had to worry about the most important position on the field, because he's getting big contributions from just about everywhere else. Whether it was the defense's stellar effort in a 23-0 win at then-No. 6 Auburn to open the season, or the offense combining for 96 points in wins over BYU and Hawaii, the Trojans look like a team on a mission to not only win the Pac-10 but also contend for a national championship. It also doesn't hurt that that Palmer's replacement, Matt Leinart, a 6-foot-5, 220-pounder, has stepped in and been efficient throwing 51-for-85 for 647 yards and six touchdowns with three interceptions.
The road continues against Cal, a team in transition following the departure of quarterback Kyle Boller. "We're pumped up the Pac-10 is finally here and we can play games that give us a chance to win a championship," Carroll said. "It starts off with Cal, a young team that's transitioned from a good season last year and has started to play good football. They caused problems for teams last year and us in particular. They had a big-time win at Illinois that I'm sure was a boost." Carroll said he expects Tedford to mix things up on offense, which could make Cal unpredictable. "Jeff Tedford has done a great job with the style of the offense and I think he's one of the better coaches we will face all year," Carroll said. "He creates challenges for us on defense. It's a very wide-open style. They do a lot of things and make it very difficult for us."
Cal coach Jeff Tedford knows what his team is up against. "(The Trojans) are very talented. They are very well coached," Tedford said. "They have great schemes. They are fast, athletic, great tacklers on defense. They have great receivers and a great offensive line. They are a very well-balanced group."
Cal comes into this matchup with momentum after winning 31-24 over Illinois at Champaign last week. A 68-yard punt return by Vincent Strang late in the first half put Cal up by two touchdowns, and the Golden Bears withstood a furious Illinois rally in the final five minutes. Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers, making his first start of the season, completed 20 of 37 passes for 263 yards and one touchdown, a 14-yarder to Geoff McArthur. Rodgers and McArthur hooked up six times for 90 yards in the second quarter. Still, Tedford says his players will have to be even better to stand a chance against USC. "We have to make the plays when they come our way," Tedford said. "We have to take advantage of all our opportunities. It comes down to execution." Cal has covered 6 of past 8 vs. hated Pac-10 rival USC, including narrow 30-28 loss at L.A. Coliseum LY
While the Trojans enjoyed a week off, the Golden Bears were shocking Illinois in Champaign, 31-24. In a scheduling quirk, this will be California's sixth game while USC will be playing just their fourth. It's too early in the year for fatigue to be a factor so advantage Cal who has performed well vs. some very good competition. The offense has been particularly impressive under the guidance of quarterback Aaron Rogers. The Juco transfer, who had an incredible 28 to 4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions last year, is doing a pretty good job of making Bear fans forget about the departed Kyle Boller. The Trojans are a legitimate Top 10 club but are laying big points to a team that has yet to lose a game by more than 11 points under the guidance of head coach Jeff Tedford is a dicey proposition! Take the points and pray!
Projected Score: USC 30, California 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON CALIFORNIA +13.5
TULANE (3 - 1) at TEXAS (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 7:00 PM
169 TULANE
170 TEXAS -30
Detailed Analysis
No. 13 Texas will be facing one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country Saturday when it hosts Tulane in its final non-conference contest. Tulane's J.P. Losman has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of the Green Wave's first four games and leads the nation in touchdowns (15) and passing yards (1,355). Losman has completed 64 percent of his passes (109-of-171) and ranks second in the nation in total offense. He passed for 350 yards and five touchdowns against Army. "They have a talented quarterback, a lot of good receivers and the offensive line is returning eight or nine starters," Texas defensive tackle Kalen Thornton said. "They are a very talented team, and it's going to be tough to get out there and get after them."
Texas leads the all-time series with Tulane, 16-1-1, and has not allowed a point against the Green Wave (3-1) since 1962. Since then, the Longhorns have won four games by a combined score of 132-0, including a 49-0 victory last season. But this year's Tulane team is averaging 35.8 points per game. After their first three contests were decided by three points, the Green Wave defeated Army, 50-33, last week, forcing eight turnovers. "We beat them pretty well last year, but they were 0-3," Texas quarterback Chance Mock said. "By most pro prospects, they have the highest rated quarterback in the country, and that will be a challenge for our defense." Last week, Texas (2-1) rebounded from a home loss to Arkansas by routing winless Rice, 48-7. The Longhorns rushed for just 62 yards against Arkansas, but Benson ran for 85 in the first half alone against Rice. The Longhorns exploited Rice's defense on Saturday night, as RB Cedric Benson scored three touchdowns and backup RB Selvin Young had two more in a 41-point first half on their way to an easy 48-7 victory over the Owls. Against the Owls, they managed 323 total net rushing yards, a marked improvement!
Make no mistake, the Green Wave can score: In four games this season, Tulane has outscored its opponents 143-123 and won its last three contests after losing to TCU in the season opener. Although the Green Wave have some momentum, it could be hard to beat the Longhorns on their home turf. Texas defeated the Green Wave in Tulane last season 49-0 as 32-point favorites and this one looks to be a surefire shoot-out so take the hot QB with 30 points.
Projected Score: Texas 42, Tulane 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TULANE +30
MISSOURI (4 - 0) at KANSAS (3 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 12:35 PM
167 MISSOURI -10.5
168 KANSAS
Detailed Analysis
No. 23 Missouri heads into the start of conference play undefeated - but just barely. After escaping with an overtime win against Middle Tennessee, the 23rd-ranked Tigers seek their first 5-0 start in more than two decades Saturday when they visit Kansas in the Big 12 Conference opener for both teams. Middle Tennessee came into the game as a three-touchdown underdog, but Missouri needed Brad Smith's four-yard touchdown run and a 36-yard extra point by Mike Matheny to hold off the winless Blue Raiders, 41-40, in triple overtime. Matheny was forced to kick a long extra point because of a penalty for excessive celebration following Smith's touchdown. Smith passed for three touchdowns and accounted for 238 yards of total offense for Missouri, which has not been 5-0 since 1981, when the Tigers finished 8-4.
Kansas (3-1) is off to its best start since 1987, but faces a stiffer test this week after routing Division I-AA Jacksonville State, 41-6. Bill Whittemore, who threw for 319 yards, passed for two touchdowns and ran for two more in the Jayhawks' 28-point first quarter, Kansas' highest-scoring period since 1964. Whittemore became the first player in school history to be responsible for four touchdowns in one period. The Jayhawks appear to be making progress under second-year coach Mark Mangino, having already surpassed last season's win total (2-10). But they have dropped 15 straight conference games.
Missouri and Kansas are meeting for the 112th time in the nation's second-oldest rivalry. The Tigers are looking for their first three-game winning streak in the series since 1986-88. Missouri posted a 36-12 victory last season as Smith passed for two touchdowns and scored on a 75-yard run.
The Jayhawks (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been on a roll lately, losing their first game of the season to Northwestern, but coming back strong with three consecutive victories over UNLV, Wyoming and Jacksonville State. In those three victories, Kansas has scored 46, 42 and 41 points, respectively. QB Bill Whittemore passed for 319 yards with two TDs and rushed for two more TDs against Jacksonville State. The Tigers have looked tough to beat and should get another victory here in what could turn out to be a high-scoring contest. Again, backing the hot QB with the points.
Projected Score: Missouri 40, Kansas 36
PLAY 2* UNITS ON KANSAS +10.5
ARKANSAS (3 - 0) at ALABAMA (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 3:30 PM
137 ARKANSAS -2
138 ALABAMA 44
Detailed Analysis
We told you so! Alabama just does not cover the big number at home, now 11-23 ATS as a large favorite (10 points or more). Last week, the Tide fell victim to the Big MAC attack losing SU to a very good Northern Illinois team, 19-16, as a 12 point favorite. This week gets no easier even though this will be the Tide's fifth home game in a row to start the year. What are they going to do when they have to travel to the rest of the SEC? A great question for a later week. Arkansas once again ate piggishly at the Texas trough, defeating North Texas State 31-7 SU.
This game could be the biggest trap of the year. How quick people forget that Alabama should have beat Oklahoma as they were able to match them play for play! The underdog in this series has been Dominate ATS (6-2, 75%) The past two years Alabama has starved the Hogs 30-12 SU at Arkansas last year and 31-10 SU the year before in Tuscaloosa.
Projected Score: Arkansas 17, Alabama 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ALABAMA +2
UTAH (2 - 1) at COLORADO ST (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2003 6:30 PM
133 UTAH 52
134 COLORADO ST -6
The Rams defense has been a sieve since a 36-33 home loss to UNLV to end last season. Take out a 31-7 win over outmanned Weber State, and the Rams defense has allowed an average of 35 points per game in their last 4 regular season tilts. This season alone, Colorado, Cal, and Miami-Ohio have completed 73 of 108 passes, (a 68% completion rate), for 994 yards, with 9 TD's and just 2 INT's! But this week, they open the conference season with upstart Utah coming to town. Fresh meat! A new QB on the road. Defensive guru Sonny Lubick of Colorado State will know how to handle that. Alex Smith of Utah basically handed off all night when he made his first career start on his home field on a Thursday night, on TV. He was aided by a 14-0 lead courtesy of bad ball-handling by Cal. CSU QB Bradlee van Pelt is a gamer and CSU has been pointing to a defense of their conference title. Utah's starting tight end is out, so Smith has one less possession receiver and he isn't likely to be throwing deep much.
Projected Score: Colorado St 27, Utah 14
*OPINION SELECTION ON COLORADO STATE -6
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PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 1:00 PM
199 PHILADELPHIA 41
200 BUFFALO -3.5
Detailed Analysis
Will the real Philadelphia Eagles please stand up? They haven't yet, although in fairness, they've lost to the last two Super Bowl champs (Bucs, Patriots). On the other hand, both those games were at home and the Eagles (0-2 SU/ATS) are averaging 5 points per game! The Eagles entered this season with Super Bowl aspirations. After losing in the NFC championship game each of the last two seasons, the Eagles entered this year with one goal - Super Bowl or bust. So far, it's been a major bust as the Eagles have been manhandled in losing their two home games by a combined 48-10 against the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs and Pats.
The Eagles enter this contest off their bye and are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since dropping four in a row in 1999 - Andy Reid's first season as coach. Reid, who has built a reputation as an offensive coach, has watched his offense look downright offensive through two games. The Eagles have committed seven turnovers, yielded 10 sacks and Reid has abandoned the running game. McNabb has completed just 45 percent (37-of-82) of his passes for 334 yards and three interceptions. Buckhalter, who began the season as the Eagles' starting running back, has just one carry in two games. "We lost two games and people think it's the end of the world," Buckhalter said. "We're going to go out there and play some emotional football and start a winning streak." The Eagles' defense also has been decimated by injuries. They have lost three defensive linemen to season-ending injuries and cornerback B Taylor and fellow Pro Bowl free safety B Dawkins likely will miss their second straight game with foot injuries.
Many, think that being shorthanded on defense could be trouble against the Bills, who feature quarterback Bledsoe and star receiver E Moulds. Running back T Henry could miss the contest with injured ribs. Bledsoe and the rest of the Bills' offense will be looking to get back on track after getting shut down in last Sunday's 17-7 loss at Miami. The Bills managed just 118 total yards and eight first downs in losing for the first time in three games. Against the Dolphins, Bledsoe completed 10-of-25 passes for 98 yards, with two interceptions. Moulds was held to two receptions for 30 yards.
Buffalo leads the series, 5-4. The Bills posted a 26-0 victory over the Eagles in the last meeting between the teams here in 1999. Perhaps getting away from the Philly boo-birds will help. Injuries have hit Philly hard, but with two weeks to prepare for this matchup look for Andy Reid to steady the ship and for innovative defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson to have some tricks up his sleeve, though missing safety Brian Dawkins and possibly cornerback Bobby Taylor. This is a great spot for the Eagles. Coming off a bye and back-toback home losses, the Eagles have to be extremely hungry for a win. Add Buffalo’s terrible 2-20 ATS record (11 ATS losses in a row) in the game following a Miami game and Philly’s sterling 13-5 ATS mark as road dogs and the game sets up perfectly. Remember, the Green Birds are 7-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss with Reid.
Projected Score: BUF Bills 17, PHI Eagles 24
PLAY 3* UNITS ON THE EAGLES +3.5
PLAY EAGLES MONEYLINE +160
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 8:30 PM
219 INDIANAPOLIS -2
220 NEW ORLEANS 42.5
Detailed Analysis
Perhaps the most disappointing team thusfar in the NFl would have to be the Saints. The Saints (1-2 SU/ATS) are coming off a 27-12 loss to the Titans in which QB Aaron Brooks had trouble igniting the Saints. New Orleans, which had the NFC's highest-scoring offense last year, could only outscore Tennessee's special teams which had a safety through the first three quarters. WR Joe Horn had 17 catches in the first two games combined but just one for 5 yards against Tennessee. "They took away our primary threat, which is Deuce running the football," Brooks said. "Deuce had no daylight, no daylight at all." however, expect Deuce to carry the ball alot on this matchup (around 30 carries) which will keep the potentially explosive Colts offense off the field.
Usually, non-conference road games are the least important on any team’s schedule, unless it’s late in the season and playoff berths are on the line. However, this particular non-conference road game for the Colts precedes ANOTHER non-conference road game at Tampa Bay. Conventional wisdom would say “prepare here, lest you take a passing team into the teeth of a great pass defense at Tampa Bay and get stomped.” But Tony Dungy once coached the Bucs. Tampa Bay won a Super Bowl immediately after they let Dungy go. Who would Tony Dungy want to beat more than anyone else? The Bucs, no doubt. With a 3-0 record in a weak division, this game, as mentioned, is not very important in the Colts’ big picture. The Colts have been tough in tough places like at Philly and Denver last year. But Saints’ team speed on offense could turn small routes into big gains, and the New Orleans return and coverage teams are very underrated and can turn the tide of a game in a hurry.
Interestingly, there are two games that fall into PLAY AGAINST trend which has only happened 17 times in the last 17 years and there are two games on the board that fit into this trend this weekend. PLAY AGAINST any Game Four NFL road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first three games. ATS W-L RECORD SINCE 1986: 15-2 (88%). I will take the Saints and there speed as they look to get back on track this Sunday night.
Projected Score: IND Colts 17, NO Saints 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW ORLEANS +2
DALLAS (1 - 1) at NY JETS (0 - 3)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 4:15 PM
215 DALLAS 37
216 NY JETS -3
Detailed Analysis
Monday morning headline in NY city: Parcell's "King of New York." As it stands now, Parcells has more wins at the Meadowlands this season than the Jets, the team he coached from 1997-99. The Jets will have to beat their former boss on Sunday when they host Parcells and the Cowboys to avoid hitting the bye week with an 0-4 record. But the Parcells Reunion Tour started with a 35-32 overtime win here over the Giants on September 15. Parcells ends the Tour with a game at New England on November 16. "A lot's going to be made of it because it's Parcells coming back to New York again for the second time in three weeks," said Jets four-time Pro Bowl center Mawae, who was signed by Parcells in February 1998.
Parcells led the Jets to the AFC championship game in 1998 and went 29-19 in his three years with the team. But he "retired" from coaching after the 1999 season and remained as general manager for one more year before leaving the organization. Although Parcells said he would never coach again, many of the Jets knew he would return to the field. "He had the itch, you could see it," said Jets cornerback R Mickens. "This is the NFL and change is imminent." After three straight 5-11 finishes, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was seeking dramatic change when he hired Parcells, who coached the Giants to two Super Bowl titles and New England to a Super Bowl appearance. The Cowboys lost at home to Atlanta, 27-13 in Parcells' debut but followed that up with the overtime win at Giants Stadium. Q Carter threw for a career-high 321 yards and PK Cundiff tied an NFL record with seven field goals. Maligned after missing an extra-point and a short field goal attempt in the loss to Atlanta, Cundiff kicked a career-high 52-yard field goal on the final play of regulation to tie the game and drilled the winning 25-yarder in overtime.
The Jets have scored a total of 39 points in three games, and have fared poorly in the red zone, managing one touchdown in six possessions inside the opponents' 20. They were fourth in the NFL in red zone efficiency last season. New York has also failed to establish a balanced offense, calling 115 passes and only 50 rushes in three games. Testaverde threw for 264 yards and a touchdown in last week's 23-16 loss at New England. Testaverde, who turns 40 in November, is eighth all-time with 40,300 yards. Hall of Famer Joe Montana is seventh all-time with 40,551 yards.
How important is coaching in football? You'll see it on display here. Dallas (1-1 SU/ATS) has had two weeks to prepare and played their last game in these neck of the woods, a wild 35-32 OT win at the Giants. The young players are responding under Bill Parcells, and this team is averaging 24 points and 275 yards passing per game. The 'D' has been able to stop the run, but not the pass, so perhaps the Jets can score with their air game here. On the other hand, the Jets (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) are a mess with a pitiful (and conservative) offense under aging Vinny Testaverde that has scored 13, 10 and 16 points in three games (all losses). Listening to coach Edwards he doesn't sound confident of his team. Note that he's not playing mind games with Parcell's by talking up the Boyz', but rather diminishing his teams performance and ability. Jets again without key contributors on defense and the linebackers are very slow. Meanwhile Parcells has had the bye to come down off the mountain with their upset win on this field two weeks ago. Dallas has solid secondary that matches up very well to Jets receivers. All sign point to an underdog straight up win in this affair. Also lean on the UNDER in this one with the lifeless JETS...bet the tick...tick...tick.
Projected Score: DAL Cowboys 17, NY Jets 10
PLAY 2* UNITS ON DALLAS +3
PLAY .5 UNITS ON DALLAS +150
KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 9/28/2003 4:05 PM
197 KANSAS CITY -3
198 BALTIMORE 44
Detailed Analysis
Interesting battle...a great defense against a great offense. The Ravens are off to a surprising 2-1 SU/ATS start, but note that they are one-dimensional on offense: 194 yards rushing per game, 96.7 yds passing as they work in rookie QB Kyle Boller. The Ravens had 249 yards last week (just 97 yds passing) in a 24-10 win at San Diego and allowed 132 yards rushing, 4.4 yards per rush. This run defense is not as strong as in recent years, and they will be tested here against a red-hot KC team. Kansas City (3-0 SU/ATS) is rolling under coach Dick Vermeil, arguably the best coach in the NFL. They are outscoring teams by a 36-16 average.
The running back matchup of Jamal Lewis vs. Priest Holmes figures to be so good the game has been switched to a late afternoon kickoff to accommodate more viewers. Holmes,though,almost didn’t play last week. He was so banged up with rib and calf injuries the team listed him as questionable. The Ravens have much the superior defense here, with MLB Ray Lewis back to his dominant Super Bowl form of 2000 flying all over the field, and rookie Terrell Suggs providing an additional pass rushing spark. The Ravens are quite familiar with Holmes and his cutback abilities.Holmes played four seasons with Baltimore before signing with the Chiefs as a free agent. The Chiefs have struggled on the road, going 2-6 away from Arrowhead Stadium last year. This also is their secondstraight away game. Kansas City’s passing attack hasn’t been anything special. Trent Green has thrown for three touchdowns, no wide receiver has stepped up so far and star TE Tony Gonzalez has been close to a non-factor being slowed by a lingering ankle injury. For those who appreciate trends and angles consider the Ravens are 9-0 ATS the last nine years in their fourth game of the season. Baltimore also has covered its last six against AFC West opponents.
Interestingly, there are two games that fall into PLAY AGAINST trend which has only happened 17 times in the last 17 years and there are two games on the board that fit into this trend this weekend. PLAY AGAINST any Game Four NFL road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first three games. ATS W-L RECORD SINCE 1986: 15-2 (88%).
Projected Score: KC Chiefs 21, BAL Ravens 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BALTIMORE +3
[This message was edited by Sports Guru on September 27, 2003 at 07:54 AM.]
